{{Firstname|Good morning}}, this week we examine how security has moved from the margins to the center of North American strategy. From the arrest of Nicolás Maduro and the geopolitical shockwaves it sent through markets and energy politics, to the growing reality that border enforcement now outweighs facilitation, the rules governing trade, migration, and investment are changing fast. As the U.S. signals a harder line on security and compliance, businesses and governments alike are being forced to adapt. The forces reshaping North America are no longer theoretical. They are operational, political, and immediate.

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The arrest of Nicolás Maduro marks one of the most consequential foreign policy moves in the Western Hemisphere in decades. It was bold, controversial, and unmistakably intentional.

The administration’s justification centered on three charges: narcotics trafficking, mass illegal migration, and criminal organizations operating at the highest levels of government. The message was not subtle. This was about reasserting U.S. authority where Washington believes state failure has crossed into direct threat.

Having worked inside government, I can say this clearly: actions like this are never just about one leader or one country. They are signals.

The signal here is that the U.S. is willing to use hard power when it believes security, migration, and criminal networks converge. That has implications well beyond Venezuela. It reshapes how allies, adversaries, and investors interpret American resolve.

For Latin America, this creates both anxiety and recalibration. Sovereignty concerns are real. But so is the recognition that U.S. tolerance for disorder linked to drugs and migration is narrowing.

For Mexico, Canada, and U.S. partners, the lesson is not that intervention is imminent. It is that security alignment now matters as much as economic alignment.

For businesses, this moment underscores a new operating reality. Political stability, enforcement credibility, and alignment with U.S. strategic priorities increasingly influence where capital flows and where scrutiny intensifies.

Power has rules again. They may be uncomfortable, unevenly applied, and deeply debated, but they are unmistakably back.

Understanding that is essential to navigating what comes next.

The global economy did not ease into 2026. It jolted awake.

Markets opened the year expecting the usual early-January signals: labor data, central bank guidance, inflation trajectories, and corporate earnings outlooks. Instead, geopolitics forced itself back into the driver’s seat, reshaping risk calculations almost overnight.

The arrest of Nicolás Maduro did not just shake Caracas. It sent ripples through energy markets, emerging-market risk premiums, and global supply chain planning. Venezuela may be a diminished oil producer compared to its past, but it remains symbolically and strategically important. When political risk escalates this visibly, investors recalibrate far beyond the country in question.

What we are seeing now is a broader repricing of political stability as an economic input. Energy traders are reassessing regional supply assumptions. Multinationals are revisiting exposure in jurisdictions once written off as “contained risk.” And capital is becoming more selective, favoring environments where governance, enforcement, and alignment with U.S. strategic interests are clearer.

For North America, this moment reinforces a core reality: relative stability is an advantage. The U.S., Mexico, and Canada may have their disagreements, but compared to flashpoint regions elsewhere, the continent still offers scale, proximity, and institutional depth.

That said, stability is no longer assumed. It must be demonstrated.

For businesses, this means 2026 planning cannot rely solely on macro indicators. Political risk, security alignment, and regulatory credibility now sit alongside interest rates and labor costs in boardroom decisions.

Trade winds are shifting again. Those who read them early can still set their sails.

For the last decade, the U.S.–Mexico border was optimized for speed. Nearshoring rewarded efficiency, predictability, and low friction. That model is now changing fast.

We are entering what I call security shoring, where security and compliance outweigh facilitation. This administration has made clear that border policy is no longer about moving goods faster, but about controlling risk. That shift is already being felt by companies operating across North America.

The justification used to take out Nicolás Maduro is instructive. The administration framed its action around three claims: drug trafficking, mass illegal migration, and cartel style criminal capture of the state. Whether one agrees or not, that narrative matters because similar arguments increasingly shape U.S. expectations of Mexico and, by extension, North American trade.

As the USMCA joint review approaches later this year, security and migration will sit in the background of every negotiation, even if not formally written into the agreement. Trade benefits will be implicitly tied to trusted corridors, trusted shippers, and credible enforcement cooperation. When migration pressure rises, facilitation drops. Companies feel that first at the port of entry.

From my experience inside government and now advising companies through Intermestic, this shift is operational, not theoretical. We are already seeing:

Customs clearance has become a primary risk frontier. Under a security-first framework, weak documentation, loose broker oversight, or poor internal controls quickly become liabilities.

What should companies do now?

For Mexico and Canada, the challenge is parallel. Going into USMCA discussions, governments must be prepared with credible security cooperation, a strong trade certainty message, and contingency plans for border tightening.

Nearshoring is not ending. It is being redefined.

In today’s environment, security is the new facilitation.

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