{{Firstname|Good morning}}. This week’s Power Courier reflects a shift in focus as security, politics, and economics collide more directly across North America. From the arrest of Nicolás Maduro and the message it sends about how Washington now links drugs, migration, and accountability, to the ripple effects on trade, jobs, and opportunity, the stakes are becoming operational, not theoretical. You’ll notice less headline roundup and more analysis drawn from my experience in government and business, especially as the U.S. election year accelerates and political decisions begin to shape real world outcomes. The forces reshaping North America are moving fast, and this newsletter is evolving to keep pace.

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When I was in government, one lesson came up repeatedly. Markets move faster than diplomacy, but only when they believe rules will stick.

That is why Venezuela matters beyond the headlines. Yes, oil and gas will be first movers. But what experienced investors should be watching is not production numbers. It is who is willing to touch the ecosystem around the barrel.

Refiners, traders, insurers, shipping firms, and engineers only reengage when they believe contracts can be enforced and payments can clear. The moment those actors begin moving capital and people, it signals something far more important than a political shift. It signals operational confidence.

This is the lesson Mexico should absorb carefully. Nearshoring alone does not unlock investment. Legal certainty, predictable enforcement, and quiet coordination with U.S. regulators do.

What to watch next:

When those show up, capital is no longer speculating. It is committing.

I have sat in rooms where leaders debate whether Washington is serious.

The debate usually sounds very sophisticated. Lots of caveats. Lots of history. Lots of reasons why “this time might be different.”

And then something happens.

When the debate ends, it ends quickly.

In this case, the timeline was almost comical. One moment, Venezuela is an abstract problem. The next, Nicolás Maduro is in custody. And almost immediately, Colombia’s president is on the phone.

That call was not about ideology or alignment. It was about risk management. When the United States demonstrates a willingness to act decisively, regional leaders reassess their exposure in real time. The spreadsheet gets updated. The talking points get rewritten. The phone gets picked up.

This is what many observers miss. Unpredictability is not chaos. It is leverage.

And in the Western Hemisphere, leverage travels fast.

In my experience working across borders, countries that adapt fastest are not the loudest allies. They are the ones that quietly adjust policy, enforcement, and messaging before being asked.

Mexico understands this dynamic better than most. Proximity means that hesitation does not buy time. It increases scrutiny.

What to watch next:

The real signals will not come from speeches. They will come from execution.

Mexico is entering a period where continuity alone is not enough.

The message from Washington this week was unmistakable. President Trump did not move against Maduro because of democracy rhetoric. He moved because of drug trafficking, cartel violence tied to U.S. communities, and migration waves destabilizing the region. That is the standard now being applied across the hemisphere.

Having worked at the intersection of border policy, security, and trade, I can say this plainly. Partners do not expect perfection. But they do expect credible effort and measurable progress on the issues that directly affect U.S. security.

For Mexico, that means progress on three fronts that can no longer be deferred.

First, cartels and organized crime. Not just arrests at the street level, but disruption of leadership, finances, and political protection.

Second, corruption and political cover. Investors and U.S. agencies are watching to see whether Mexico is willing to confront corruption even when it implicates powerful figures, including governors, party leaders, and entrenched networks built over the last administration.

Third, migration control with enforcement credibility. Not slogans. Not symbolism. Evidence that Mexico can manage flows in a way that reduces pressure on the U.S. border.

This is the implicit question now facing President Claudia Sheinbaum. Will she demonstrate independence from the previous administration’s posture of “hugs not bullets”. Will she allow prosecutors and regulators to operate without political protection. Will cooperation with the United States extend beyond coordination to accountability.

None of this requires public rupture or dramatic announcements. But it does require visible seriousness.

Mexico’s advantage has always been pragmatism. The test now is whether pragmatism translates into durable credibility in a hemisphere where patience is wearing thin.

Mega events do not create competence. They expose it.

I have worked on large scale cross border movements where the margin for error was thin and the spotlight unforgiving. The lesson is always the same. Coordination under pressure matters more than plans on paper.

The 2026 World Cup will be the largest operational test North America has faced in a generation. Millions of visitors. Three countries. Dozens of cities. Aviation systems, border crossings, payments, security, and logistics all stressed at once.

For Mexico, this is not about national pride or tourism numbers. It is about proof of capacity.

If Mexico can demonstrate smooth mobility, effective security coordination, and reliable infrastructure during the World Cup, it strengthens its case as a trusted partner in trade, nearshoring, and investment. If it cannot, doubts will harden quickly.

This is where Venezuela and Mexico quietly intersect. The same question underlies both. Can the state execute at scale without losing control.

The World Cup will not be judged by how loudly it is promoted. It will be judged by how smoothly it works.

In election years, policy stops being abstract.

I have seen this from inside government. When issues like immigration, border enforcement, and security become visible, emotional, and local, political incentives shift almost overnight. Decisions get louder. Timelines get shorter. And nuance disappears.

That is already happening.

Highly visible enforcement actions are driving media cycles, protests, and positioning well ahead of Election Day. Immigration is no longer a policy debate. It is a campaign issue unfolding in real time, shaped as much by optics as by outcomes.

This section is where I will be tracking that shift throughout the year.

Not from a partisan lens, but from a practical one. How politics intersects with border security, trade, investment, immigration, and economic stability. These are the areas I work in every day, and they are increasingly being pulled into the political arena.

As the year unfolds, I will highlight:

Helpful or not, they will be called out accordingly.

In election years, results matter more than intent. Optics matter more than white papers. And decisions made for political advantage often outlast the campaigns that created them.

That is the reality this section will track

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