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What’s New This Week

Good morning, this week, Mexico is soaring with record-breaking tourism numbers while the U.S. imposes a controversial $250 visa fee that’s drawing global backlash. Trump is threatening new tariffs, grounding flights, and dismantling cross-border partnerships—stalling Mexico’s nearshoring momentum and jeopardizing the very infrastructure America needs to stay competitive. And at the border? Wait times are surging, trade is slowing, and the world is watching.

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Trade Winds

The New Playbook for Power, Trade, and Trust

I’ve spent decades navigating the space between governments, markets, and borders. From Nogales to Washington, and now across industrial corridors in Mexico and the U.S., I’ve learned that the future rarely shows up with a clean roadmap. But if you know how to read the terrain, you can still chart a path forward.

That’s exactly what I thought reading BlackRock’s 2025 Midyear Global Outlook. Their message? The traditional anchors of economic forecasting—stable inflation, fiscal discipline, safe-haven assets—are fading. In their place, we’re operating in a new regime defined by mega forces: AI, energy demand, geopolitical fragmentation, and supply chain realignment.

At my firm, Intermestic, we don’t see this as chaos. We see it as clarity. Because in this environment, action favors those who understand proximity, resilience, and the power of private capital to fill public gaps.

We’re already applying that perspective—whether it’s through our partner’s EV’s solar-powered cobalt processing facility in Yuma, or the SouthBridge logistics and manufacturing platform in Nogales, we’re building what BlackRock describes: real infrastructure that meets the moment. But this shift affects more than just global investors or policy elites—it affects everyone thinking about where to allocate resources, how to protect assets, or where the next opportunity lies.

So what should you do with this information?

Three Strategic Moves for Border-Minded Leaders and Investors:

1. Own the Border Advantage—Before the Rest of the World Does.
BlackRock makes it clear: supply chains can’t be rerouted overnight. The U.S. economy is still tethered to complex, cross-border manufacturing ecosystems. That’s why Arizona, Sonora, Baja California, and Chihuahua are becoming strategic goldmines—not just for goods, but for energy, talent, and logistics.

2. Build Through the Grid—and With It.
The AI arms race is constrained by infrastructure: power, water, connectivity. BlackRock reports a surge in private capital flowing into energy and grid systems as tech and industry collide. If we don’t solve the capacity problem, innovation stalls.

3. Watch Washington’s Wallet. Act Locally.
BlackRock points to rising U.S. debt—now over $36 trillion—and a fragile fiscal future. Their forecast? Less federal bandwidth. More investor scrutiny. That makes public-private models more important than ever.

In a world where even the U.S. dollar is showing signs of vulnerability and EM currencies are gaining ground, the edge belongs to those who can act boldly, connect across borders, and adapt to this new era of uncertainty.

Old anchors are gone. But we’ve got something better—vision, partners, and proximity to the action. Let’s build the future from here.

Power Move

Tourism’s Tipping Point: Why Mexico’s Boom Is a Warning for the U.S.

Mexico is having a moment. In 2025, the country welcomed nearly 40 million international visitors, marking one of the strongest tourism surges in its history. From beach resorts to cultural capitals, Mexico has gone all-in on connectivity, ease of entry, and hospitality—and it's paying off in a big way.

Meanwhile, the United States—once the undisputed magnet for global travelers—is struggling. International arrivals are down 12% year-over-year, and tourism leaders are warning of a $22 billion revenue loss. For border states like Arizona, where tourism is a pillar of the economy, that decline hits especially hard.

The reasons are stacking up:

• Trade tensions and diplomatic frictions have cooled enthusiasm, especially among Canadian and Mexican travelers.

• Tougher immigration enforcement and unpredictable airport treatment are making the U.S. feel unwelcoming.

• The new $250+ Visa Integrity Fee, passed under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” adds another layer of cost and confusion. Visitors must now pay this non-waivable, up-front fee on top of existing visa charges—and may only be reimbursed years later, if at all.

• The I-94 fee has also quadrupled, adding even more financial friction for travelers.

• At the same time, Brand USA, the nation's tourism marketing engine, saw its funding slashed from $100 million to $20 million, just as the U.S. prepares to host global mega-events like the FIFA World Cup 2026 and America's 250th anniversary.

What’s the message the U.S. is sending? “You can come—if you can afford it, navigate the bureaucracy, and accept the risk.”

By contrast, Mexico is sending a different message: “We’re open, accessible, and ready to welcome you.”

This divergence isn’t just about tourism—it’s a broader test of soft power, economic foresight, and international trust. And for states like Arizona, which benefit from cross-border mobility and binational travel, it’s a wake-up call.

3 Power Takeaways:

• Arizona stands to lose: With fewer visitors crossing from Mexico or flying in from abroad, local businesses, parks, and service workers will bear the brunt.

• Bad policy has a price: Punitive fees and cuts to tourism promotion send the wrong message at the worst time.

• Mexico is outpacing us: By lowering barriers, investing in infrastructure, and avoiding nationalist posturing, Mexico is claiming the momentum America once held.

Tourism is more than a transaction—it’s a reflection of how the world sees you. Right now, the world sees Mexico as a host. The U.S.? More and more, it’s looking like a hassle.

The Border Buzz

Stuck at the Gate: How Border Delays Threaten America’s Global Edge

In 2025, we’re not just losing time at the border—we’re losing opportunity.

From Laredo to San Ysidro, U.S.-Mexico border wait times have grown 40% longer this year, according to a Border Report investigation. That’s not just a headache for commuters—it’s a direct hit to trade, tourism, and trust.

The U.S. calls Mexico its top trading partner. But try telling that to the truck driver sitting six hours deep in a customs line—or the tourist skipping a trip to Arizona because of unpredictable delays. While Mexico is streamlining infrastructure and expanding hours at key ports, the U.S. is understaffed, underfunded, and increasingly seen as unreliable.

This is no longer a “border town” issue—it’s a national competitiveness crisis:

• Slower trade means higher costs for manufacturers and fewer just-in-time shipments.

• Tourism delays chip away at the visitor experience, especially for international travelers from Mexico.

• Investor confidence dips when critical goods and people can’t move efficiently across borders.

And as the global economy shifts toward regional supply chains and nearshoring, that inefficiency has consequences far beyond the border.

The U.S. touts its commitment to competitiveness, yet in 2025, it’s still treating ports of entry like Cold War checkpoints. Meanwhile, Mexico is investing in its advantage—faster customs tech, modern infrastructure, and integrated logistics planning.

Buzz Highlights:

• Border wait times are eroding America's ability to capitalize on nearshoring and regional integration.

• Delays at ports of entry are now a national liability, not just a regional nuisance.

• If the U.S. wants to lead in North America, it has to start acting like it at the border.

The U.S.-Mexico border isn’t just where goods pass through. It’s where reputations are built—or bottlenecked.

Power Poll

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