{{Firstname|Good morning}}, this week we examine how tariffs are pushing holiday prices higher and squeezing American families during the busiest shopping period of the year. We look at rising border security alerts as millions prepare for holiday travel and authorities respond to intensified cartel activity at key crossings. And we turn to Mexico, where sharp peso volatility and an unexpected Attorney General shakeup have raised new concerns about corruption, institutional stability, and the future of cross border trade.

First time reading? Join thousands of intellectually curious readers. Sign up here.

Holiday shopping is underway, and families across the United States are discovering what economists warned for more than a year. Tariff driven inflation has arrived, and it is landing directly on the American consumer. Rising duties on imports, from metals to electronics and finished goods, are now reflected in the price of groceries, home goods, and common holiday gifts.

A comparison between last season and this year shows the pressure clearly. Inflation remains near three percent. Food inflation has climbed above three percent. Furniture and home goods have risen by roughly four percent. Nearly eighty percent of holiday staples cost more today than last year. During the most important consumer period of the year, families are feeling the compound effect of tariffs and global supply disruptions.

Retailers are not absorbing these costs. They are passing them on. Higher import prices raise the cost of production and transport, leaving households to fill the gap. Inflation may no longer dominate headlines, but its quiet persistence is embedded in everything from grocery carts to gift lists.

There is a solution. Strengthening the North American supply chain reduces exposure to distant markets, geopolitical shocks, and tariff disputes. Nearshoring into Mexico and expanding production across Sonora, Chihuahua, Baja California Norte, Nogales, and Yuma offers speed, cost stability, and greater predictability.

This holiday season reveals a simple truth. Tariffs drive prices up. North American cooperation drives costs down. The path to affordability runs through deeper continental integration, not higher barriers.

This year’s holiday travel season begins with new border security advisories along the United States Mexico border, where cartel related activity has intensified near key crossings. Recent seizures of high value narcotics, along with pursuit incidents, have pushed federal agencies to increase enforcement at the precise moment when millions prepare for travel and retailers depend on the uninterrupted flow of goods.

For families, the concern is understandable. The border is not only about immigration. It is a central artery for tourism, cross border commerce, and the supply chain that stocks American stores in December. When cartel operations expand, authorities must shift personnel toward interdiction, slowing crossings and raising the perceived risk for travelers.

My experience as former Chief of Staff of United States Customs and Border Protection taught me that disruptions rarely stay isolated. A single incident at one port can ripple across multiple states. Commercial carriers reroute. Insurance costs rise. Businesses hesitate to move sensitive products through unstable corridors. These impacts directly affect American consumers who rely on timely deliveries.

Both governments share responsibility for managing this moment. The United States will act swiftly to protect its ports, but long term stability requires deeper cooperation with Mexican institutions, investment in shared technology, and a sustained focus on dismantling criminal networks.

As holiday travel accelerates, families deserve clarity and safety. Border stability is fundamental to the economic strength and mobility of the entire North American region.

Mexico closed the week facing renewed instability as the peso experienced sharp volatility and the administration confirmed the departure of the Attorney General following public scrutiny and political pressure. The change, intended to stabilize the justice system, has raised new concerns about institutional independence and the government’s ability to manage corruption at a critical moment.

Markets reacted quickly. The peso saw one of its most unstable stretches in months, with analysts pointing to a combination of global uncertainty and domestic governance challenges. Investors treat corruption risk as an economic variable. When the credibility of prosecutors is questioned, capital seeks safer ground.

The impact extends beyond Mexico. A weaker and more volatile peso affects United States consumers through the price of produce, auto parts, and cross border goods. It also shapes tourism flows and retail activity in border states such as Arizona and California. For Americans already facing higher holiday prices, currency instability adds another layer of unpredictability.

The underlying issue remains corruption. Reports have highlighted influence networks and weak oversight inside key institutions. The recent leadership change places greater pressure on the new Attorney General to demonstrate independence and rebuild confidence. Without credible institutions, Mexico risks slowing the nearshoring momentum that has strengthened North American manufacturing.

For both countries, this moment reinforces a central truth. Economic integration depends on institutional stability. Currency volatility is a symptom of deeper governance challenges. How Mexico responds now will shape trade, investment, and regional competitiveness in 2026.

Thanks for reading this edition of my newsletter! I'd love to hear from you. Share your thoughts about what you think are the most critical issues that need to be addressed. Email me at [email protected] or connect with me on social media using the hashtag #Intermestic.

Stay Informed, Stay Connected!

Let's keep the conversation going!