{{Firstname|Good morning}}. This week we examine how U.S. pressure on Mexico is reshaping trade, security, and the border in real time. As enforcement, corruption, and leverage move to the center of the relationship, execution is replacing agreements. We close with a quieter look at Nogales, Arizona, and a reminder of a more dignified border — captured through art, memory, and shared history.

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After years working at the intersection of trade, security, and government, one lesson has proven consistent. Formal agreements matter far less than how power is exercised when pressure is applied. As the 2026 USMCA review approaches, I do not believe the next phase of the U.S.–Mexico relationship will be shaped by renegotiation theatrics. It will be shaped by unilateral leverage and selective bilateral deals.

I am reaching this conclusion because we have seen the playbook before. When pressure was applied to Venezuela, it was not through consensus building or multilateral patience. It was through targeted actions that forced immediate recalculation. When threats surface toward Colombia or Mexico, they are designed to sit over leaders’ heads, not to invite negotiation tables. This is the governing instinct of Donald Trump. Unpredictability as leverage. Pressure as policy.

In an election year, that instinct sharpens. Speed matters. Optics matter. Control matters. Bilateral actions allow all three without the drag of multilateral coordination.

For Mexico, this cuts both ways. Targeted U.S.–Mexico agreements on security, supply chains, energy, and border operations could deliver faster results than a three-country process ever could. But the cost of hesitation or non-compliance rises dramatically in this framework.

Security becomes the fulcrum. Not as rhetoric, but as an economic condition. Supply chains now price exposure to organized crime, enforcement gaps, and migration volatility. This is where my concept of SafeShoring applies. Not nearshoring because it is closer, but because it is safer, enforceable, and aligned.

Migration must be part of the equation. If the United States expects cooperation on security and enforcement, the give must be legal, structured labor mobility. I doubt Mexico has the political confidence to demand this proactively, but this is precisely the moment to do so. U.S. industries will need Mexican workers. Circular, regulated movement is not a concession. It is the pressure valve.

USMCA may remain the framework. But power will move through execution.

What changed after the strike against Venezuela was not just posture. It was credibility. When Washington demonstrates it is willing to escalate beyond rhetoric, leaders across the region stop treating pressure as political theater and start treating it as a clock.

Mexico is feeling that shift acutely.

Behind the scenes, U.S. pressure on Mexico has intensified around a growing body of corruption evidence tied to organized crime. This is not speculative intelligence. Much of the sourcing now comes from cartel figures captured over the last two to two and a half years who are cooperating with U.S. authorities as protected witnesses. That includes information originating from figures linked to Joaquín Guzmán, his son, Ovidio Guzmán, Ismael Zambada, and other individuals who operated under political protection and are now detailing how corruption was financed, facilitated, and enforced.

The result is a widening list of Mexican political figures under U.S. scrutiny. From former senior officials to sitting governors and party leaders tied to the current governing coalition. The leverage is not subtle. Visa revocations. Financial exposure. Tariffs. Extradition pressure. This is pressure designed to sit squarely over decision makers’ heads.

From my own conversations with leaders in Mexico, the anxiety is real. There is a growing recognition that ignoring this moment carries a higher cost than engaging it. How Mexico responds will shape border relations far more than speeches or summits.

For U.S. companies, this matters. A serious effort to dismantle political protection networks would lower the hidden cost of doing business, reduce distorted competition, and allow firms to compete on merit rather than connections. The risk is volatility. The opportunity is a fairer field.

Security and anti corruption are no longer adjacent to trade. They are becoming the price of access.

The photograph that sparked this idea was taken around 1930 during the construction of what is now known as the Morley Gate in Nogales. In the image, the small border facility stands freshly built. A flag flies overhead. A few officers are simply there, present, observing. There is no crowd, no urgency, no confrontation. Just order and calm.

Looking at that image, my mind filled in the human moment that history often leaves just outside the frame.

I envisioned a mother and her young son approaching that small facility. Calmly. Respectfully. Papers in hand. The officer receiving those documents not with suspicion, but with professionalism and courtesy. The mother standing with pride, knowing where she belongs and what she is doing. The child watching in quiet awe, in a baseball hat, absorbing a lesson about rules, dignity, and mutual respect.

That is the moment we are trying to capture in paint.

The historical photographs show the structure and the setting. The art allows us to restore the humanity. Not to rewrite history, but to remind us that the border was once experienced as a place of formality, order, and recognition, not fear. Everyone understood their role. Everyone understood the boundary. And everyone was treated with dignity.

This Nogales piece will be the first. My hope is that it becomes part of a larger series, documenting similar landmarks and moments along the U.S.–Mexico border. A collection that uses art to spark dialogue, reconnect communities to shared history, and remind us that borders, at their best, are not just lines to defend, but spaces where respect once guided interaction.

That is the image I am trying to preserve. And that is the conversation I hope this work can help restart. 🫶🏽

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