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⚡⛏️🤝 Energy, Minerals & Cartel Moves

⚡⛏️🤝 Energy, Minerals & Cartel Moves

Trump’s shaky “dominance,” looming mineral shortages, and unprecedented U.S.–Mexico security cooperation are reshaping North America’s future.

Marco Lopez
August 18, 2025

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What’s New This Week

Good morning, this we explore how Trump’s push for “energy dominance” is colliding with rising costs, even as the specter of “peak mineral” tests North America’s clean-energy ambitions. Meanwhile, Mexico’s extradition of 26 cartel figures and U.S. drones flying in its skies signal a new urgency in cross-border cooperation. Add in a Canadian booze boycott and Mexico’s record tourism boom, and it’s clear the region is shifting fast.

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Inside Special Sections

Trade Winds: Why “energy dominance” may falter—and how projects like the Nogales interconnection could strengthen U.S.–Mexico resilience.
Power Move: Defining “peak mineral” and how Mexico can become a true partner in securing North America’s critical mineral future.
The Border Buzz: Cartel extraditions, drone surveillance, and maritime vigilance mark the strongest U.S.–Mexico cooperation since 2015.

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The Quick Courier

⚡ Energy Dominance Debate
Trump’s swagger on fossil-fuel supremacy may grab headlines, but experts warn that elevated utility prices and legal blowback could blunt his “energy dominance” ambitions—and fuel policy headwinds.

⛏️ Peak Mineral Warning
A looming shortage of lithium, cobalt, and rare earths could stall the clean-energy transition and tighten China’s grip on supply chains.

🚔 Cartel Extraditions Rise
Mexico handed over 26 cartel suspects—including members of CJNG and Sinaloa—to the U.S. in a rare move that signals growing law-enforcement alignment.

✈️ Drones Over Mexico
For the first time in years, a U.S. CBP drone crossed into Mexican skies—flown at Mexico’s request to gather intelligence on cartel strongholds.

📈 Tariff Squeeze Feels Real
As Trump’s trade war deepens, grocery staples and critical materials are becoming more expensive, setting up a potential wave of inflation for consumers.

👷 Nearshoring Workers Wanted
U.S. factories riding the nearshoring wave are scrambling to find talent, manufacturers expect a need for 3.8 million new workers over the next decade.

🍷 Booze Boycott Burns U.S.
Canada’s boycott slashed U.S. spirits and wine exports by 62–67%, costing California wineries more than $173 million and devastating small distilleries.

🏖️ Mexico Tourism Booms
Mexico welcomed a record 23.4 million international visitors in H1 2025—a 7.3% jump year‑on‑year—driven by stretched airports, surging road travel, and meteoric tourism demand across North America.

Trade Winds

From Energy Dominance to North American Resilience

North America Energy Dominance

President Trump’s promise of “energy dominance” is sparking debate. His plan centers on reviving fossil fuels and dismantling clean-energy incentives, but experts warn that it risks driving up costs, stifling innovation, and adding volatility to already fragile energy markets. The rhetoric may sound powerful, but on the ground, utilities and consumers are seeing prices surge and uncertainty grow.

The real path to competitiveness lies not in isolation, but in cooperation, especially across North America. The United States and Mexico already share deeply integrated energy systems, yet misaligned policies keep us from unlocking the full potential of a resilient, affordable, and sustainable regional grid. By harmonizing standards and investing in shared infrastructure, we can create an energy backbone that supports growth on both sides of the border.

One project already on the horizon shows what’s possible: the Nogales cross-border power interconnection. By 2028, this initiative could add 100MW of capacity linking Arizona and Mexico, helping stabilize supply at a time when Phoenix faces skyrocketing demand and constrained capacity. Projects like this don’t just solve local shortages, they spread out investment, lower long-term costs, and prove that cross-border collaboration delivers real benefits to businesses and households alike.

Policy moves to accelerate progress:

USMCA Energy Task Force: Launch a dedicated bilateral group to align permitting and regulatory standards for cross-border energy.
Joint Infrastructure Incentives: Tie federal and state support to projects like Nogales, where cross-border integration adds reliability and creates room for private investment.

If leaders act now, North America can shift from competing over “dominance” to building resilience. For consumers, that means stable prices. For industry, that means reliable power. And for our region, it means energy is not a vulnerability — but a competitive edge.

Power Move

“Peak Mineral” and North America’s Strategic Edge

Critical Minerals Demand Peaking

The Atlantic recently spotlighted a growing concern: “Peak Mineral.” Much like the concept of “peak oil,” it refers to the point when the demand for critical minerals—such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths—outpaces the ability of global supply chains to keep up. It doesn’t mean these resources will vanish overnight, but rather that shortages, higher costs, and geopolitical vulnerabilities will increasingly shape the energy transition.

If unaddressed, these pressures could slow innovation, drive up consumer prices, and make the U.S. more dependent on adversaries for the raw materials of the future.

But for North America, this challenge is also an opportunity. The U.S., Canada, and Mexico have the resources, geography, and talent to secure supplies and become leaders in clean energy manufacturing—if they act together. Nearshoring mining, refining, and recycling can reduce dependence on China and build a competitive advantage for the region.

In my recent meetings with Mexico’s President and her cabinet, I have emphasized the need for Mexico to play a bigger role in the critical minerals agenda. While there is recognition of the opportunity, more must be done to position Mexico as a true partner—not a bystander—in this space. Mexico’s mineral base, renewable energy capacity, and proximity to U.S. industrial hubs make it a natural ally in strengthening our supply chains.

What’s needed now:

A North American Critical Minerals Alliance under USMCA to harmonize mining standards and investment rules.
Infrastructure and recycling incentives along the U.S.–Mexico corridor to expand supply and extend resource life cycles.
Workforce development programs to train the next generation of engineers, miners, and technologists across the region.

For consumers, this means lower costs and faster access to clean energy products. For industry, it means predictable inputs and less reliance on geopolitical rivals. And for North America, it means turning a looming shortage into a platform for competitiveness and security.

Peak Mineral doesn’t have to be a ceiling—it can be a catalyst. If we build smarter, together, scarcity can become strength.

The Border Buzz

Cartels, Drones & Submarines: A New Era of U.S.–Mexico Cooperation

US-Mexico Cooperation

This week brought a rare alignment of headlines pointing to deeper U.S.–Mexico security cooperation:

26 cartel suspects extradited to the U.S. — Mexico turned over 26 individuals wanted by U.S. authorities, including members of the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG. It’s the second large transfer this year, and came with U.S. assurances that no death penalties would be pursued. The move signals renewed willingness to align enforcement efforts across borders .
CBP drone flies into Mexico at Mexico’s request — A U.S. CBP MQ-9 SkyGuardian crossed into Mexican airspace with full authorization from Mexico’s Security Ministry. Its mission: provide surveillance over cartel strongholds and support Mexican authorities with real-time intelligence. Officials described it as cooperation, not intervention .
Chilean submarine spotted off Puerto Vallarta — From August 15–18, the Chilean Navy’s SS-20 “Thomson” anchored in Bahía de Banderas en route to the U.S. Navy’s annual DESI exercise. SEMAR issued a maritime advisory, confirming its presence. While not cartel-related, the sighting underscored the heightened maritime vigilance and international coordination now surrounding Mexico’s Pacific coast .

Why It Matters

Together, these developments show a trend: Mexico and the U.S. are building trust again—on land, in the air, and at sea.

When I served as Chief of Staff at CBP, we conducted similar drone missions in coordination with Mexico. But candidly, I haven’t seen this level of operational cooperation since about 2015. To see it return now is encouraging, because defeating the cartels and stabilizing our shared border requires exactly this kind of binational engagement.

If sustained, this cooperation can dismantle cartel logistics, bolster confidence in border security, and create safer conditions for trade, investment, and families alike.

The fight against cartels isn’t Mexico’s fight or America’s fight, it’s ours, together.

Power Poll

Do you think the recent U.S.–Mexico cooperation—like cartel extraditions and joint drone surveillance—marks a real turning point in the fight against organized crime?

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