{{Firstname|Good morning}}, this week we track Mexico’s 50% tariff push on Chinese cars, reshaping North America’s EV future ahead of the USMCA review. We spotlight Joy Buolamwini’s warning on ethical AI as governments test automation at the border, and examine how falling Canadian and Mexican tourism is chilling border economies. And on this Mexican Independence Day, Sept 16, we’re reminded how history continues to shape today’s cross-border currents. From political violence at home to a court ruling on tariffs abroad, the forces shaping North America are moving fast.

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Mexico’s proposed 50% tariff on Chinese-made cars and EVs is more than a border tax—it’s a statement about where North America’s auto industry is headed as the 2026 USMCA review looms. BYD and Tesla (for models imported from Shanghai) are likely to be hardest hit, while U.S. and Canadian manufacturers with plants inside Mexico could find themselves relatively shielded.

The Sheinbaum administration argues the move protects local jobs and deters “dumping” of underpriced vehicles, but it also risks raising prices for Mexican consumers and slowing EV adoption just as the region pushes toward decarbonization. Diplomatically, Mexico is walking a fine line: it insists the tariffs aren’t meant to target China, even as it dispatches envoys to Beijing to cool tensions.

For U.S. investors and policymakers, the tariffs underscore how Mexico’s trade policy is aligning more closely with Washington’s concerns about Chinese overcapacity and the integrity of North American supply chains. This could shift investment decisions—especially in EV batteries and components—toward localizing production in Mexico to stay inside the tariff wall.

I’ve spent time in Mexico City recently, and it’s hard not to notice the surge of foreign EVs on the streets. Writing about them in past newsletters, I’ve seen how quickly consumer demand can tilt markets. The question now is whether tariffs will redirect that demand into a stronger North American EV ecosystem—or price out consumers and delay the transition.

What’s clear is that these decisions go beyond cars: they are shaping the future of North American competitiveness ahead of the USMCA review.

Last week in Mexico City, researcher and advocate Joy Buolamwini reminded us that technology is never neutral. Her call for responsible, human-centered AI could not be more relevant for North America’s borders, where governments and companies alike are experimenting with machine learning to manage trade, security, and migration.

AI already powers tools like automated cargo inspections, predictive analytics for supply chains, and biometric systems at ports of entry. Done right, these systems could make commerce faster and safer. But as Buolamwini warns, models are not born ethical. They reflect the data—and the biases—on which they are trained. If applied without safeguards, AI can deepen inequities rather than solve them.

At the border, the stakes are real:

As someone who has worked at the intersection of trade and border security, I’ve seen how powerful technology can be in shaping outcomes. But Buolamwini’s caution is a timely reminder: AI is only as just as the values we embed in it. North America has an opportunity to lead the world not just in deploying AI at the border, but in proving that innovation and ethics can reinforce each other.

New data shows a sharp decline in international visitors to the U.S., with Canadian and Mexican travelers in particular pulling back amid heightened enforcement, tariffs, and political rhetoric around migration. (Axios)

The numbers matter. Tourism is a critical piece of the border economy—from Canadian visitors who drive winter spending in Arizona and Texas to Mexican families who cross for shopping, services, and cultural events. When those flows shrink, hotels, restaurants, retailers, and even border tax revenues take the hit.

The causes are layered: stepped-up enforcement at and beyond ports of entry, new scrutiny of visas and work permits, and a perception that travel to the U.S. has become less welcoming. Add in tariffs on airlines and higher fees on cross-border services, and the calculus for many families shifts.

For communities along the border, this trend isn’t just about lost tourist dollars. It chips away at the social fabric of cross-border exchange; the friendships, family ties, and everyday commerce that keep the region vibrant. Long term, fewer visits mean fewer business deals, less student exchange, and less cultural understanding.

As someone who works and grew up on the border, I’ve seen how vital these personal crossings are to shared prosperity. When policy chills mobility, it doesn’t just deter travelers, it weakens North America’s competitiveness. The challenge now is to balance legitimate security concerns with keeping the border a bridge, not a barrier.

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